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November 2008                                                                                                   Volume 15 - Number 2

Perspectives...

Summary of Presidential disaster declarations by decade since 1953

By: Dale Furrow

Presidential disaster declarations can be tracked since 1953, when the Federal Government began to serialize the declarations.

If we compare the number of declarations, types of events, total expenditures, and stratify this data by decade and state, we can clearly see trends. Since 1953, the total number of declarations approved rose steadily. In the 1950’s, the total number of declarations was only 107, but by the 1990’s this number had grown to 467. The first decade of the 20^th century is following the trend, and as of September of 2008, there have already been 396 declarations. Along these same lines, the total approved funding for the 107 declarations of the 1950’s was slightly over $507 million (2008 USD-adjusted), where the recent sums for the 90’s and current decade are well over $39 billion and $79 billion, respectively, and still rising.

The average for each state compared against itself in succeeding decades has stayed relative stable increasing along the same trend line as that observed in the national aggregate described above, but the total deviation from one state to the next has expanded as time has progressed. From the 50’s to the present day, five states have emerged as averaging nearly 10 declarations per decade: Texas (mean 13.5; total 81), California (mean 12.2; total 73), Florida (mean 9.8; total 59), New York (mean 9.3; total 56), and Louisiana (mean 9.0; total 54).

The states receiving the largest allotments of funding by decade on average are: Louisiana (mean $5 billion; total $30 billion), California (mean $3 billion; total $18 billion), Florida (mean $2.5 billion; total $15 billion), New York (mean $2.2 billion; total $13 billion), Mississippi (mean $2.0 billion; total $12 billion), and Texas (mean $1.0 billion; total $5 billion). Though Mississippi has received more funding by decade on average bumping Texas from the top five states, it is quite evident that the states with the most declarations on average are also the states that receive the most funding on average. In fact, these top six states account for nearly 70% of all of the monies approved by declaration activities since 1953 ($95 billion of $137 billion).

From 1953 to the present day, the top types of disasters for which declarations were approved are: Floods – 691, Severe Storms – 338, Hurricanes – 157, Floods and Tornados – 144, Tornados – 129, and Snow – 119. Comparatively, if we examine this data by decade, we find that these same types of events also lead each decade in the average number of declarations of all types for the period. For example, there was an average of 115 declarations for floods per decade from the 1950’s to the present day, and an average of 56 declarations for Severe Storms. Further, if we examine the average funding for these same types of events and compare them by decade to all of the other events, it clearly demonstrates that though they are in a different order due to the precise impact per event, the top six most frequently occurring events are also the top six most costly: Hurricanes (mean $11.7 billion; total $71 billion), Floods (mean $2.7 billion; total $16 billion), Sever Storms (mean $2.3 billion; total $14 billion), Snow (mean $500 million; total $3.5 billion), Flood and Tornado (mean $500 million; total $3.2 billion), and Tornado (mean $ 260 million; total $2.5 billion).

By comparing this data, it is evident that since 1953 the greatest expenditures of federal monies related to natural disasters have been focused on response activities related to a small contingent of events of a specific nature, and from a fairly restrictive list of regions. This data could be used to direct mitigation efforts to reduce losses of these types in these regions.

Data Source: http://www.peripresdecusa.org/mainframe.htm