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March 2008                                                                                              Volume 14 - Number 2

Perspectives...

Perception of Terrorism Risk

By Greg Carnevale

While risk is based on three components: the threat to a target, the target’s vulnerability to the threat, and the consequences of the target being successfully attacked, it is important to understand how the public, not just homeland security, will perceive and react to the threat of terrorism. This article discusses my perception of terrorism risk with a focus on radicalizations. I will address homegrown radicalization in the U.S. and Europe and how marginalization of Muslim communities separates us from those who are susceptible to becoming radicalized.

The issue of radicalization and terror in the United States has received growing attention over the last few years based on developments both overseas and at home. Terrorist attacks by homegrown Islamic extremists in Madrid and the United Kingdom, and the arrests of radicalized individuals with varying characteristics and backgrounds in the United States, Canada, and Australia, have demonstrated the diversity of the patterns, trends, and developments associated with the broad radicalization phenomenon.

The development of domestic terrorism in Europe and other parts of the world is a warning sign to America that must be heeded. Solutions and practices to address radicalization must be created by local communities. As we build awareness throughout our communities, our Federal, State, local law enforcement authorities should work together to investigate, disrupt, and prevent terrorist activity and refuse terrorists the ability to operate effectively within the United States.

Countering homegrown radicalization must be a priority. Federal, state and local governments working in partnership, sharing a common goal, and creating a set of standards and practices for law enforcement and intelligence reporting that would function as a warning and control system, identifying where potential radicalization may be occurring or detecting any increase in activities is the key to detection, deterrence and prevention. Such a warning system could be used to target public events and programs; guide further intelligence collection; and improve terrorism risk assessments.

The relative social and economic exclusion from meaningful participation in society of Muslim communities in Europe leaves them more susceptible to radical political and religious messages. While by comparison the United States is in a privileged situation, we are not immunized against the challenge, as borders are not the firewall that they once were. Muslim culture, and in particular the Islamic faith, are not widely understood within the Western world. This lack of understanding, combined with fear of extremist adversaries, spoils our ability to relate with the larger and overwhelmingly peaceful and moderate Muslim population, reinforcing misconceptions of and dividing us from those susceptible to radicalization.

The perception of terrorism (usually thought of in the physical sense) is far different from the reality as terrorism targets the psychological health far more than the physical health of the general public. Unpredictable attacks create the fear that ultimately satisfies the goal of terrorism. Homegrown terrorism has the potential rapidly increase these attacks and to affect the homeland on a large scale, especially if we continue to alienate and/or ignore groups that are susceptible to radicalization. I cannot predict the nature of the next attack, or when and where it may occur, but based on my work over the past few years I believe the quantity and severity of attacks on the United States, its interests and its allies will likely increase. Terrorism should be perceived as an inveterate problem requiring a constant and enduring strategy, with ever evolving tactics.