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March 2008                                                                                              Volume 14 - Number 2

    

 

2008 Hurricane Season...

     

 

Forecast for 2008 Hurricane Season

By Theresa Fasceski

 

Since 1984, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) has issued yearly Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts.  The Tropical Meteorology Project is funded partially by the National Science Foundation and the Research Foundation of Lexington Insurance Company and is not affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  NOAA publishes its own hurricane forecast in late May, with an update in early August.

 

The Tropical Meteorology Project’s forecast is initially published in December and is updated five more times throughout the hurricane season, beginning in April.  The Project is led by Dr. William Gray, professor emeritus of Atmosphere Science at CSU, and assisted by research scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach.  In addition to the yearly Atlantic basin forecast, the Project also produces the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project with GeoGraphics Lab at Bridgewater State College (MA).

 

The Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008 (Dec. 7, 2007) states that the 2008 hurricane season will have above-average number of named storms and an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall.  This year’s December forecast is based on a newly developed, simplified three-predictor model, down from up to six, using statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data.  The forecast also adjusts for past hurricane seasons with similar precursor circulation features.  For the first time in 16 years, this new model demonstrates considerably improved hindcast skill, showing operational skill over climatology (observations).

 

The forecast also includes a discussion of global warming and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.  Comparing several combinations of historical storm data, there does not appear to be an increase in named storms, hurricanes and U.S. landfalls during the last 107 years when the average global temperature has increased by 0.4oC.  There is evidence of above-average hurricane seasons during periods of global cooling.

 

Summary:

Named Storms:  13  (50 year average:  9.6)

Hurricanes:  7  (50 year average:  5.9)

Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+):  3  (50 year average: 2.3)

Probability for at least one major hurricane landfall on

U.S. coastline:  60%   (100-year average:  52%)

U.S. east coast and Florida:  37%  (100-year average:  31%)

U.S. gulf coast (west of Florida):  36%  (100-year average:  30%)

 

Sources:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/

http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/dept/faculty/emeritus/gray.php

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071129_hurricaneend.html

Klotzbach, Philip J. and William M. Gray.  Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008.  December 7, 2007.