In a few years, homeowners in Seattle will have a map that will allow them to assess their risk of damage from a major earthquake.  Such maps are called seismic-hazard maps and have been produced nationally by the USGS for a half-century, largely to provide cities and countries with the information they need to assure that homes, offices, bridges, roads and utilities can ride out a serious quake. Seattle, like every major city, has such a map, but it has been rendered obsolete given recent discoveries that have seriously increased the seismic risk. For example, when the Nisqually Quake that hit last year in the north end of West Seattle didn’t behave as the current map had predicted.  This project is one of the many in which the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP), through the United States Geological Survey (USGS), is currently involved.  Such maps enable interested parties to assess earthquake hazards and implement effective mitigation strategies.

According to FEMA, earthquakes represent the largest single potential for casualties and damages from a natural hazard facing this country.  NEHRP serves as the lead agency for several agencies that deal with this issue. NEHRP also applies the results of research and technology development to effective earthquake loss reduction measures at state and local levels.  NEHRP was created by law in 1977 as a long-term, nationwide, earthquake risk reduction program.  Member agencies in the NEHRP are the US Geological Survey (USGS), the National Science foundation (NSG), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the National Institute for standards and technology (NIST).  

The USGS is also involved in the collection, interpretation, and dissemination of information on earthquakes throughout the world as a means of supporting disaster response, research, national security, earthquake preparedness and public education.  This aspect of the program includes using information to build better quake predictions. Much of the body of current research comes from the study of past earthquakes. In recent years, scientists have moved from using small-scale models of buildings and placing them in a centrifuge to using three-dimensional computer modeling systems that more closely mirror actual conditions. Using such systems allow scientists to model how a rupture takes place and better understand why the rupture takes place, how it results in shaking and how buildings respond to motions, according to Roger Borcherd, a researcher at USGS’s Strong Motion Seismology Group, part of the agency’s western Earthquake Hazards Team. This information helps scientists understand how to build structures that are better equipped to withstand earthquakes.  

For more information on this subject, go to the USGS strong Motion Seismology Group web site at http://www.usc.edu/dept/civil_eng/Earthquake_eng/Research.html, USGS home web site at http://www.usgs.gov/, the Earthquake hazards program –Home web site at http://eqwebback.wr.usgs.gov/awards.html, and the Western States Seismic Policy Council at http://www.wsspc.org/links/nehrp.html,