The 2002 Hurricane Season
By Dana N. Griffin
Hurricanes, to most Americans, tend to be only found in the Atlantic
and Caribbean where as the term Typhoon is applied to Pacific born Hurricanes.
This is not entirely true as the term Hurricane is also used for this category
of storm in the eastern Pacific where as Typhoon is typically reserved
for this category of storm in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Due to the strengthening of El Niño, in the equatorial Pacific
during the Spring of 2002, the 2002 hurricane season was expected to feature
normal to below normal overall activity, according to a consensus of scientists
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate
Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National
Hurricane Center (NHC). According to NOAA, Hurricane-spawned disasters
typically occur in years with normal or below-normal levels of activity
According to NOAA’s May forecast, the combination of El Niño
and the ongoing hurricane formation conduciveness, indicated a 50% probability
of a near-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a below-normal
season, with a 10% probability of an above-normal season.. Historical data
for similar climate conditions indicates a likely range of 7-10 tropical
storms this season, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes [categories
3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale].
El Niño strengthened to nearly moderate intensity during the
months of July and August and is now expected to have an additional suppressing
influence on upcoming hurricane activity. As a result, the probability
of a below-normal season has increased from 20% to 40% compared to the
outlook issued on 20 May. Conversely, the likelihood of an above-normal
season has decreased from 35% to 10%, and the probability of a near-normal
season has increased slightly from 45% to 50%.
Thus far the June until November hurricane season, as listed by Unisys
Weather, has produced the following storms:
1. Atlantic and Caribbean. Thus far there have been (9)
Tropical Storms and (4) Hurricanes, with two hurricanes, LILI and KYLE
still active. Of the 13 storms to date, only five have made landfall
2. Eastern Pacific has experienced (9) Tropical Storms and (6)
Hurricanes, none currently active and only one making landfall in Mexico
and none making landfall in the U.S.
So far this season there have been no major hurricanes in either region.
Damage and Fatalities. Currently, NOAA has not released any official
figures concerning the 2002 Hurricane season as it relates to damages and
fatalities. News reports, from the major networks puts the total damage
estimates in excess of $3 billion dollars, and directly related fatalities
at over two dozen.
Weather Related Websites:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html
http://www.nbc4.com/weather/
Dr. Gerald Bell, Meteorologist, Climate Prediction Center; gerry.bell@noaa.gov
Mr. Eric Blake, Meteorologist, Tropical Prediction Center; eric.s.blake@noaa.gov
Dr. Muthuvel Chelliah, Physical Scientist, Climate Prediction Center;muthuvel.chelliah@noaa.gov
Mr. Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist, Hurricane Research Division;
stanley.goldenberg@noaa.gov
Dr. Christopher Landsea, Meteorologist, Hurricane Research Division;
chris.landsea@noaa.gov
Dr. Kingste Mo, Meteorologist, Climate Prediction Center; kingste.mo@noaa.gov
Dr. Richard Pasch, Meteorologist, National Hurricane Center; richard.j.pasch@noaa.gov
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