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April 2009                                                                       Volume 16 - Number 3

    

 

News and Analysis...

     

 

 

 

Anticipating the 2009 Hurricane Season: Is anything different in the plans?

 

Robin GreenPope

 

The 2009 hurricane season begins June 1, 2009 and, according to national experts, has a 63% chance of delivering a category 3 hurricane or greater (above average). But with the lessons of Katrina still fresh in our minds, are we any better off?

 

A typical hurricane is first managed at the State and local level, but is usually quickly supplemented by federal resources, such as FEMA. FEMA, however, relies on assistance from other federal agencies, the National Guard, and the Department of Defense to execute.

 

Every year, National Guard leaders from 11 hurricane-prone states meet to plan for the upcoming hurricane season. But this year in February 2009, the National Guard leaders from those states welcomed US NORTHCOM as a co-host and were joined by 27 states, a handful of federal partners, and five major commands. This meeting was considered the first of its kind “Joint Hurricane Planning Workshop” where subgroups planned responses at all levels in their chain of command. Local and regional planning meetings had been held in the past, but Katrina showed that not only do State and locals need to meet, but Federal partners need to be involved at those meetings to plan responses and make connections early so that each player understands the other’s roles and responsibilities. There was no published evidence, however, to indicate that agreements and understandings were memorialized as a result of the meeting. At the same time, it was well received by all involved and they hope to continue this model of planning in the future.

 

Other hurricane conferences have been conducted for decades, including the annual National Hurricane Conference and the annual Governor’s Hurricane Conference. But upon reviewing their agendas it is not clear that they promote a culture of real world scenario planning or preparedness. Rather, they promote hurricane planning as simply hurricane awareness. It even appears to have become a thriving business.

 

It is unclear whether there have been any specific changes as a result of these meetings, but the Joint Hurricane Planning Workshop shows that they are clearly trying new ways to involve more players early for serious planning.

 

If nothing else changes, at least the change in leadership of FEMA may bring new ideas. Craig Fugate was nominated to become the FEMA Administrator in early March 2009. He comes with an impressive track record for his response to Florida hurricanes. However, he is known for his belief that preparedness rests with the individual and that they should not solely rely on State or public assistance. Although he has only been the acting administrator for less than a month, it can be assumed he will bring this same attitude to FEMA and promote preparedness as a key aspect for hurricane season 2009. Fugate himself is not available for public comment until he is confirmed by the Senate, but on March 17th Janet Napolitano, current Secretary of DHS, reassured America by saying that Fugate “really knows the hurricane business.”

 

Hurricane readiness involves comprehensive planning throughout the entire emergency management cycle; Homes and businesses can be structurally reinforced (mitigation), citizens can plan evacuation routes (preparedness), and local, State, and Federal agencies can work together to distribute resources (response and recovery). So yes, each year the players get a little wiser, but it may take a while longer until comprehensive planning throughout the entire emergency management cycle is realized.

 

 

Works Cited

2009 Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference Website

http://www.flghc.org/

 

2009 National Hurricane Conference Website

http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/

 

FEMA Hurricane Website

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm

 

“Forecasters: 2009 to bring “above average” hurricane season”

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/12/10/hurricane.season.2009/index.html

 

“Obama’s FEMA pick offers calm after the storm”

http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/1081530.html

 

“Napolitano cites experience in disaster plans” http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/09/napolitano-cites-experience-in-disaster-plans/

 

“National Guard gears up for 2009 hurricane season”

http://www.army.mil/-news/2009/02/20/17223-national-guard-gears-up-for-2009-hurricane-season/