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Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management

Crisis and Emergency Management

April 2009 Volume 16 - Number 3

News and Analysis...

The Great Southern California Exercise: Findings and Impact on Preparedness

Chris Pisares

On November 13, 2008, the state of California conducted the largest earthquake exercise in US history, involving over 5 million people in Southern California. The purpose of the exercise, named “The Great Southern California Shakeout” where a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurring along the San Andrea Fault, was to increase awareness and preparation for a major earthquake that may affect over 22 million people who reside in Southern California.[i] To simulate real-world events, more than 300 scientist and engineers spent 2 years determining the results of a major earthquake of this magnitude: over 1,600 fires encompassing an estimated 200 million square feet of property, 1000 leaks in hundreds of miles of water pipes, breaks in natural gas and downed power lines, more than 10,000 landslides, 50 sewage spills, and estimated 1,800 personnel deaths and 50,000 seriously injured.[ii] The exercise was also the focal point for Golden Guardian 2008, a statewide disaster exercise for more than 4000 personnel representing over 100 federal, state, and local agencies to practice a multi-agency response to a large-scale disaster.

While the final report detailing the outcome of Golden Guardian 2008 has not been released, preliminary news reports[iii] indicate Southern California would have a shortage in emergency response personnel to address the consequences of a major earthquake and experience delays from six months to a year to restore essential services such as natural gas, electricity and water. These delays would hamper response and recovery efforts of civic leaders and local citizens.

As the participants of Golden Guardian 2008 analyze the results of the exercise, the preliminary findings regarding serious injuries and loss of life, major impact on essential services and shortage in emergency response personnel would be more severe than any major disasters to date. Hurricane Katrina impacted over 225 miles of coastline, with a majority of areas suffering loss of water and power, limited mobility due to downed power lines and loss of bridges, and stretching emergency response personnel beyond their capabilities.[iv] A major earthquake in Southern California would not only affect the coastline from San Diego to Santa Barbara – a distance of some 220 miles, but also inland upwards of 200 miles. The widespread and massive devastation highlights the need for national preparedness for these types of disasters.

The most important aspect of national preparedness for this, or any major disaster, is a coordinated response plan between multiple agencies at the federal, state and local levels. This plan must address how government leaders and emergency managers will evaluate multiple requests for emergency response assistance and mutual aid to restore essential services, since almost all communities will quickly deplete their local resources. Additionally, the plan must address communicating essential information to the community when most forms of mass communication may be damaged or destroyed. Finally, government leaders and emergency managers must address the criteria for mass evacuation of entire major cities and develop a plan to safely move thousands of people from affected areas.

[i] The Great Southern California Shakeout Media Guide, http://www.shakeout.org/ShakeOutMediaGuide-11-12-08.pdf

[ii] “The Shakeout Scenario”, US Geological Survey, Open File Report 2008-1150. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/of2008-1150small.pdf

“The Shakeout Scenario – A Story that Southern Californians are Writing”, US Geological Survey, Circular 1324. http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/c1324.pdf

[iii] “Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparation”, LA Times, 27 Dec 08. http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-quake27-2008dec27,0,5687891,full.story

[iv] “The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina – Lessons Learned”, February 2006 http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/060223_katrina-lessons-learned.pdf