EMSE Engineering Management and Systems Engineering

Dr. Johan René van Dorp
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Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment (VTRA) Final Report :

UPDATE SOW NEGOTIATIONS WTH CORPS AND BP: Update provided on 7/9/2012.

As stated in the attached letter from David S. Dolling, GW’s Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science, to Colonel Estok, District Engineer, Department of the Army, Seattle District, Corps of Engineers, dated June 11, 2012, after almost a year of discussions, the VTRA team has withdrawn from continued negotiations to perform additional studies under a Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment Scope of Work (SOW).

Throughout the negotiations the VTRA Team consistently maintained availability and willingness to conduct a mutually acceptable SOW based on an open communication platform (i.e., without confidentiality restrictions on work-in-progress) that is integral to the VTRA Team’s risk assessment/ management methodology involving high levels of technical detail and ongoing feedback from stakeholders as the analysis progresses.

The parties were already well past the May 21st deadline for concluding negotiations and several significant issues remained, including the communication platform mentioned above, that could not be resolved in a timely manner. Despite the good faith efforts of everyone involved in the negotiations, and as the Dean’s letter states, we concluded that the gap between the parties simply could not be bridged.


VTRA FINAL REPORT PRESENTATION:
Presented on: 4/27/2012. Hosted by Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee at Army Corps Seattle District, Seattle:

VTRA MODELING APPROACH - JRVD270412- (PDF 40mb)

VTRA CASE A - H RESULTS - JRVD270412- (PDF 7mb)


VTRA Release letter from Army Corp of Engineers - Seattle District received on: 12/9/2011


VTRA FINAL REPORT: 821 Total Pages
Released on: 3/23/2012
Submitted to BP:
8/31/2008 - Final Report Outline - (2mb)

MAIN REPORT - 83 Total Pages (48mb)

APPENDIX A: Database Construction & Analysis - 126 Total Pages (3mb)

APPENDIX B: System Description - 22 Total Pages (3mb)

APPENDIX C: Simulation Construction - 63 Total Pages (47mb)

APPENDIX D: Expert Judgment Elicitation - 61 Total Pages (20mb)

APPENDIX E: Oil Outflow modeling - 146 Total Pages (18mb)

APPENDIX F: Future Scenarios - 18 Total Pages (2mb)

APPENDIX G: Geographic Exposure, Accident and Oil Outflow Profiles - 302 Total Pages
System Context
Summary Results
Callibration VTRA Case B Results
VTRA Case Comparison: A-B-C
VTRA Case Comparison: B-D-E
VTRA Case Comparison: B-F-G
VTRA Case Comparison: B-H-I
VTRA Case Comparison: B-J-H-K
VTRA Case Comparison: B-L-H-M
VTRA Case Comparison: B-N-H-O


COMMENTS AND RESPONSES

J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, J.R. Harrald, M. Gabowksi, "VTRA Final Report Addendum: A response to 23 comments from the Corps", Submitted to BP : 1/6/2009. Released on 3/23/2012.

J.R. van Dorp, J.R.W. Merrick, "A Response to Seven Additional Questions Related to the VTRA Project", Submitted to BP : 5/20/2009. Released on 3/23/2012.


PROPOSAL DOCUMENTS

Original Proposal to BP 18APR06.pdf

Proposal Ammended - 30MAR07.pdf


School of Engineering and Applied Science
The George Washington University
1776 G Street NW, Suite 110
Washington, DC 20052
Email:  dorpjr@gwu.edu
Phone: (202) 994-6638