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October/November 2007                                                                                            Volume 13 - Number 1/2

Perspectives...

Trends in Domestic Disaster Related Deaths and Injuries Over the Past Three Decades
By Scott Steward

    The data I have chosen for this analysis is from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) maintained by the World Health Organization (WHO).  The database can be found at http://www.em-dat.net/index.htm.  In order to be included in the EM-DAT, the disaster must meet at least one of the following criteria.

1)    Ten or more people killed
2)    100 or more people affected
3)    Declaration of a state of emergency
4)    A call for international assistance was issued

    The average number of United States (US) domestic deaths per year associated with disasters appears to be on the rise.  In the 1980’s there was an average of 510 deaths per year.  In the 1990’s this number increased 3.7 % to 529 per year.  In the 2000’s it increased further to 583 per year, which is a 10.2 % increase from the 1990’s.  While this trend does show an increase, this increase is not statistically significant.  
    Within the past three decades, a trend in the average number of US domestic injuries per year associated with disasters is not clearly delineated.  In the 1980’s, the average number of injuries per year was 791.  This number spiked to 1663, an increase of 110%, in the 1990’s.  This significant increase is partially due to the injuries associated with the Northridge earthquake in 1994.  However, even when the affect of the Northridge quake is accounted for there is still an increase of 21.7% to 963 injuries per year.  So far, in the 2000’s the number of injuries per year has fallen to 627, which represents a 21% decrease as compared to the 1980’s.
    From the data analyzed the disaster type associated with the largest number of average deaths per year in each of the past three decades was windstorms, which includes tornadoes and hurricanes.  These types of disasters accounted for over 50% of the average deaths per year in the 1980’s and 1990’s.  The second largest average cause of disaster deaths in each of the past three decades was transportation disasters, which accounted for between 18% and 27% in each of the three decades.  
The disaster type responsible for the largest average number of injuries per year in the 1980’s and 1990’s was earthquakes.  Earthquakes were responsible for 48.5% of the disaster related injuries in the 1980’s and for 45.2% in the 1990’s.  However, in the 2000’s the largest number of injuries, 37.5%, are associated with wind storms.  It is interesting to note that even with improved forecasting technologies over the past thirty years and the enactment of more stringent building codes windstorms are still consistently responsible for a large portion of disaster related deaths and injuries.