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October/November 2007                                                                                            Volume 13 - Number 1/2

Perspectives...

Trends in Evacuations in Domestic Disasters
By John French

The most probable source for the requested information over the past three decades (domestic evacuations from 1980 to 2007) is the National Emergency Management Association (www.nemaweb.org). If you join NEMA, you can access their online reports and information. The most probable source is their every two year report which can be purchased for $55 (plus $6.50 S & H) whether or not you are a member. The Gelman Library reference librarian said they did not have electronic access to NEMA but that George Mason might have. George Mason (Arlington Campus) was less than helpful on a Sunday afternoon.

Other sources consulted in addition to numerous advanced Google searches were web sites for FEMA, USACE, the Census Bureau, DOT, the NRC, various insurance industry associations, the ARC, CRS, EMI, NOVAD, the World Bank, and the Institute for Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management at GWU.

The Census Bureau provided good anecdotal evidence of what took place in counties affected by Hurricane Katrina (www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/emergencies/impacted_gulf_estimates.html). A sampling of critically affected parishes/counties follows:

Parish/County    July 1,2005    Estimate January 1,2006
Orleans (LA)    437,186    158,353
St. Bernard (LA)    64,576    3,361
Hancock (MS)    46,240    35,129
Harrison (MS)    186,530    155,817

In addition, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission published a report, “Identification and Analysis of Factors Affecting Emergency Evacuations.”  NUREG/CR-6864, Vol. 1. Figure 4-3 is titled “Total Number and Type (Malevolent Act, Natural and Technological) of Large-Scale Evacuations in the United States, 1/1/1990-6/30/2003.” It tallies the number of evacuations (but not the number of evacuees) where at least 1000 people evacuated. From 1990 to 2002 the totals (based on my interpolation of the bar graph) of the three types were: 5, 6, 3, 10, 9, 14, 15, 12, 32, 21, 27, 20, 42 (and 15 for the first half of 2003).