|
|
Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management Crisis and Emergency Management Newsletter Website |
|
| |
October/November
2007
Volume 13 - Number
1/2 |
|
Hurricane Trends by Decade – 1980’s, 1990’s and
2000
By Noah Goodman Through recent research, studies, historical data collection and the media outlets, citizens across the world have been bombarded with information relating to global warming. El Nino, sea water temperature rise, polar ice melt, climatic changes and so on are now part of our daily news and rightfully so. From many of these studies, correlations between global warming and hurricanes is a major topic. This short article will look at hurricane trends since the 1980’s to help illustrate what, if any, trends are visible. In the United States alone, after adjusting for inflation, hurricane loss estimates annual average of $1.6 billion for the period 1950-1989, $2.2 billion over 1950-1995, and $6.2 billion over 1989-1995 (Pielke 1997). One hurricane in 2005 alone, Hurricane Katrina, was responsible for an estimated total loss of $100 billion. There are numerous studies on damage estimates with differing values across the board, but one thing that holds true is that hurricane damages across the world are becoming more expensive. The expense of hurricanes is one example of trends we can begin to investigate based on available information, another is the number of hurricanes causing this damage. Does the rising costs of hurricanes relate to the actual number of hurricanes making landfall? The increase in hurricane damages over recent decades has almost entirely taken place during an extended period of decreasing hurricane frequencies (Piekle 1997). The time period of 1981 through 1990 resulted in 15 named hurricanes. The next decade, 1991 through 2000 saw 14 named hurricanes, 5 major (category 3 or higher). When looking across the previous decades, these numbers are on the lower end of previous hurricanes. From 2001 through the beginning of 2005, there were a total of 9 named hurricanes. This trend of decreasing hurricane frequency held true until 2005. 2005 alone saw 15 hurricanes in the Atlantic region and 7 major storms. Since 2005, there have been 9 named hurricanes. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic have increased at an even faster clip: from 16 in the period of 1975-89 to 25 in the period of 1990-2004, a rise of 56 percent. The notion of reduced hurricane frequency held true for some time through the 1990’s, but this trend has been shattered by recent events. Instead of looking at trends in hurricanes and trying to tie these trends directly to other events such as global warming, cultures in hurricane prone areas and the governments supporting these areas need be cognizant of the rapid population growth and development in vulnerable coastal locations. Society has become more vulnerable to hurricane impacts, whether there are 4 or 20 hurricanes in a year, the issue remains that we are placing ourselves in harms way. As an example, southeast Florida including metropolitan Miami went 42 years (1950 to 1992) between strikes by intense hurricanes. During that time, the population increased by more than 600% and has probably more than doubled this number presently. Hurricane trends are an important resource and must be used in more coordination with local/regional planners. http://www.gatech.edu/news-room/release.php?id=654 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/downward/index.html http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/hurricanes05.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml?text http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html |