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February 2004                                                              Volume 6 - Number 1

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Perspectives...

Perception of the Terrorism Risk

By Sarah Self-Kyler

The terrorism risk is real. I believe most U.S. citizens and our foreign allies agree that there will always be those who do not share our American ideals, values and practices, and will, therefore, feel a need to destroy them. Terrorism exists on many planes – country-supported, religious-supported, militia soldiers, foreign-born, domestic, etc. Because of this multi-dimensional threat, extraordinary out-pourings of resources, both manpower and fiscal, are required to ensure the appropriate amount of attention is given to every hotline tip and ounce of evidence. Critical in this step is realizing that all U.S. agencies, coalition countries and Americans share the common goal of detecting and mitigating acts of terrorism; However, we do not yet have a network in place to share finding nor address the threats with a singular face.

I strongly believe that communication will be the foundation of mitigating our terrorism risk. Slowly, we have created an infrastructure thought to “hunt” and gather intelligence on suspected terrorist and terrorist activities and that will prepare Americans for the next threat. The information comes from many sources, such as the DOD, CIA, FBI, and coalition forces. It is these information ties that need to be continually strengthened and made more efficient. The immediate collaboration of information resources and broadcasts brought together by the joint counter-terrorism intelligence analysis office – the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC) - may be the answer. However, I fear this agency may not take into account unpredictable, discrete, small-scale acts that may produce a large-scale effect, such as bio warfare from a single individual or small group. The TTIC convenes analysts from Homeland Security, the FBI and the CIA in hopes of providing a streamlined, one-stop shopping for terrorism intelligence. I believe the office may suffer from parochialism, selective distribution, and a traditional eye that will not account for the next terrorist vehicle or agent. Terrorism vulnerabilities now exist on a less predictable front or one we are not structured to uncover. Americans now focus their fears and preparation on an airplane threat or truck bombing at a high interest site, but this may be the least likely front of attack.

The government is doing a fine job of making Americans feel secure for the more predictable threats, meaning the efforts to reinforce and secure government buildings are nearly in place and precautions are taken to inspect and research passengers aboard airplanes prior to take-off. Because of this, most Americans have moved on with their everyday pattern of life without feeling threatened. The use of terrorism risk color-coding has helped keep the country informed and alert, keeping the danger ever-present in the routine of daily life. This is a necessary procedure to keep reminding Americans of the threat in a world of ever-changing media interest items and to guard against complacency.

It is for these reasons that I believe high-visibility sites are no longer tenable targets for future terrorists. They are going to seek the least protected, least intelligence-gathered method of attack. To counter the burgeoning terrorist threat, we will need not just a federally mandated intelligence agency, but also a congruent network in every regional police agency and support service. The local authorities are the experts in their region and field, and should be the first to suspect suspicious activity. We can leverage their talent through a streamlined, unfiltered web of intelligence for which they cannot only draw data from, but have the ability to push data to higher authorities. The technology for this is available and affordable given the federal subsidies appropriated to states for public-safety and anti-terrorism security. The network will also be valuable in developing and sharing war-gaming scenarios and to share suggested responses, lessons learned and best practices.