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February 2004                                                              Volume 6 - Number 1

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Homeland Security...

Assessment of Terrorism Risk in the Homeland

By: Dan McGough

There is a fear amongst many individuals that the next terrorists attack within the United States will involve a weapon of mass destruction made from nuclear, biological, or chemical (NBC) material. The proliferation of these weapons, combined with the increase in the lethality of recent attacks, has forced government agencies to evaluate their NBC preparedness. However, almost no evidence has surfaced of any traditional terrorist organization, such as Hezbollah or the Irish Republican Army, attempting to acquire or use NBC weapons (Falkenrath, 1998). Not to use NBC weapons could be a strategic decision by these terrorist organizations, a decision based on their analysis of the effects of such an attack. According to McCauley (2003), terrorist are not psychopaths, but rational actors who make very calculative choices in their employed tactics. The terrorists understand that NBC materials can be difficult to tactically employ, which greatly increases the operational risk. In addition, no non-state actor had successfully used a weapon of mass destruction until Aum Shinrikyo’s nerve gas attacks. This absence of precedent gives special weight to any decision about NBC use, and probably accounts in part for the rarity of non-state NBC aggression (Falkenrath, 1998). With increased operational risk and an inability to predict the outcome of such an attack the terrorist would be making a tactical decision that could have strategic implications.

In their assessment of the operational risk the terrorist must also include the retribution implications. The U.S. and the coalition partners have proven to be very determined in their war on terrorism. Since September 11, 2001, more than 3,000 al Qaida operatives or associates have been detained in more than 100 countries (Department of State, 2003). The U.S. and coalition partners have established a strong deterrence policy by showing the capability and willingness to globally hunt terrorists. This deterrence policy would be greatly magnified if an NBC device was used in an attack. Recently, authorities broke up an al Qaida plan to fly an airplane into the U. S. consulate in Karachi, and car bombs were the weapons of choice for terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Although the identity of the organizations that used the car bombs has not been discovered, there is still a clear pattern of weapon preference in these attacks. However, the idea of retribution may have no affect on the few Islamic groups that believe they are doing god’s work and simply eliminating the infidels. Therefore the potential for such an attack requires the U.S. to assess the associated risk of such an attack. However, this assessment must be done in the context of all potential hazards, natural and technical.

There will never be a 100% guarantee of security for the U.S. and we must resist the urge to seek total security--it is not achievable and drains our attention from those things that can be accomplished (Advisory Panel, 2003). However, by the better management of risks, ahead of time, of terrorism, naturally occurring diseases, and naturally or technological disasters, resources can be prioritized and allocated to minimize vulnerabilities.

Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of

Mass Destruction. (2003, December 15). The Fifth Annual Report to the President and the

Congress of the Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism

Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction. Retrieved January 19, 2003 from

http://www.rand.org/nsrd/terrpanel/

Falkenrath, Richard A. & Newman, Bradley A. (1998) America's Achilles' Heel: Nuclear,

Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack. Cambridge, Mass. The MIT Press: 1

July 1998.

McCauley, Clark. (2003). Psychological issues in understanding terrorism and the response to

terrorism. The Psychology of Terrorism, Greenwood Publishing. Westport, Conn.

United States Department of State. (April 2003). Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002.

Department of State Publication 11038. http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2002/