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Sniper Crisis Update...

Public Sector Costs and Economic Losses Caused by the Sniper Crisis
by Eric R. Schmidt

The emotional devastation visited upon the families of the murdered and critically injured during the recent sniper spree cannot compare to monetary impact of these events.  In some ways such analysis does a disservice to those directly impacted.  But, it is vital to understand economic losses such events have on the community.  Federal, state, and local enforcement resources were stretched to meet the ever-expanding investigation.  At the time of this writing, exact direct costs of overtime and other administrative costs are being compiled.  Mr. Pete Piringer spokesman for the Montgomery Department of Fire Rescue Services indicated that Montgomery County is currently compiling direct costs.  Mr. Piringer emphasis direct costs are still mounting, although the focus has changed from law enforcement activities to the prosecution of the captured suspects, Montgomery County is still incurring significant costs and will do so for some time to come.

Direct costs never address the true impact of these events; law enforcement resources had to be reassigned to the sniper dragnet, thus routine services and functions were curtailed.  Although direct expenditures are one measure of cost, indirect costs suffered by the region are far more expensive than direct costs.  The bad news is that the shootings lasted just long enough for the economic effects to impact businesses that will have a hard time making up the losses.  According to a Washington Post poll conducted before the arrests, 32 percent of people in the region have avoided shopping at certain stores or shopping centers at least once.  Overall retail sales in the region may not be affected by the attacks, as people who didn't want to go buy a car or television for fear of being shot are likely to get around to it eventually.  For example, a George Mason University study found that while sales plummeted during the 1996 blizzard, by March, consumers had made up for the lost week.  But certain businesses, especially food sellers, restaurants are unlikely to get the benefit of that pent-up demand.
Unexpected consequences also can be attributed to the sniper spree, for example the Washington Post reported the Dynamex Corp., a courier service with operations in the region, noted that roadblocks aimed at catching the snipers caused major disruptions to scheduled deliveries.  Which in the best case means only lost wages, but in the worst case, biological fluids being delivered for medical testing were stuck in traffic so long they could not be used.
It is hoped by some that most of the economic damage wrought by the sniper is likely to be short-lived.  Past disruptions of business have abated quickly; say those who have studied such incidents as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the 1996 blizzard that hit the East Coast.  The loss the victims suffered at the hands of the snipers cannot be adequately tallied in dollars and cents, but it is critical for community leaders to understand the economic impact such events have.  Such awareness may help community leaders identify and develop specific programs to help the region recover.