Disaster
Management in the 21st Century
Chapter 2...Risk Assessment |
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NATURAL HAZARDS
ATMOSPHERIC HAZARDS
I. Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclones defined as a low pressure area of closed circulation
winds that originates over tropical waters. Winds rotate counterclockwise
in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
The season lasts from June through November.
Danger Zones- The most devastating naturally occurring hazards in the
United States and it territories usually developing over the warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean.
Types of tropical cyclones include:
Hurricanes - A hurricane is a tropical storm with winds that have reached
a constant speed of 74 miles per hour or more. Hurricane winds blow in
a large spiral around a relative calm center known as the “eye.” The “eye”
is generally 20 to 30 miles wide, and the storm may extend outward 400
miles. As a hurricane approaches, the skies will begin to darken and winds
will grow in strength. As a hurricane nears land, it can bring torrential
rains, high winds, and storm surges. A single hurricane can last for more
than 2 weeks over open waters and can run a path across the entire length
of the eastern seaboard. August and September are peak months during the
hurricane season, that lasts from June 1 through November 30.
Tropical Storms - A tropical storm is a warm core tropical cyclone in
which the maximum sustained surface wind speed ranges from 39 to less than
74 mph
Typhoons - A tropical cyclones are called typhoons in the western North
Pacific basin and after winds sustain speeds of 150 mph or greater are
classified as super typhoons
II. Thunderstorms
Thunderstorms can bring heavy rains (which can cause flash flooding),
strong winds, hail, lightning and tornadoes. Thunderstorms are generated
by atmospheric imbalance and turbulence due to the combination of conditions:
a) Unstable warm air rising rapidly into the atmosphere
b) Sufficient moisture to form clouds and rain
c) Upward lift of air currents caused by colliding weather fronts (cold
and warm), sea breezes, or mountains
Thunderstorms may occur singly, in clusters or in lines. Thus, it is
possible for several thunderstorms to affect one location in the course
of a few hours. Some of the most severe weather occurs when a single thunderstorm
affects one location for an extended time.
Lightning is a major threat during a thunderstorm. In the United States,
between 75 to 100 Americans are hit and killed each year by lightning.
Lightening is classified severe if its winds reach or exceed 58 mph, produces
o tornado, or drops surface hail at least 0.75” in diameter.
Lightning facts:
· Significant airplane disasters often are associated with thunderstorms
and lightning.
· It is a myth that lightning never strikes twice in the same
place. In fact, lightning will strike several times in the same place in
the course of one discharge.
· A bolt of lightning reaches a temperature approaching 50,000
degrees Fahrenheit in a split second.
Danger Zone- While thunderstorms and lightning can be found throughout
the United States, they are most likely to occur in the central and southern
states. The state with the highest number of thunderstorm days is Florida.
III. Tornadoes
Tornadoes are a rapidly rotating vortex or funnel of air extending ground
ward from a cumulonimbus cloud.
1) Approximately 1,000 tornadoes are spawned by thunderstorms each year
2) Most tornadoes remain aloft, the danger is when it touches the ground.
It can lift and move huge objects, destroy or move whole buildings long
distances, and siphon large volumes from bodies of water
3) The most susceptible states (tornado alley) are Texas, Oklahoma,
Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas
4) Tornadoes follow the path of least resistance. People living
in valleys, have the greatest exposure.
5) They tend to occur in the afternoons and evenings: over 80
percent of all tornadoes strike between noon and midnight
6) Over the past 20 years, there has been 106 Federal disaster declarations
for damage due to tornadoes
Danger Zones- Tornadoes can occur in any state but are more frequent
in the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest. The states of Alabama, Arkansas,
Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,
Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas are at greatest risk.
Fujita - Pearson Tornado Scale
F-0: 40-72 mph, chimney damage, tree branches broken
F-1: 73-112 mph, mobile homes pushed off foundation or overturned
F-2: 113-157 mph, considerable damage, mobile homes demolished, trees
uprooted
F-3: 158-205 mph, roofs and walls torn down, trains overturned, cars
thrown
F-4: 207-260 mph, well-constructed walls leveled
F-5: 261-318 mph, homes lifted off foundation and carried considerable
distances, autos thrown as far as 100 meters
IV. Windstorms
Extreme windstorm events are associated with extra tropical and tropical
cyclones, and severe thunderstorms. Winds vary from zero at ground
level to 200 mph in the upper atmosphere. Over the past 20 years,
Federal disaster declarations involved wind-induced damage.
Danger Zones - Areas experiencing the highest wind speeds are:
· Coastal regions from Texas to Maine, under the influence of
North Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico hurricane-related windstorms
· The Alaskan coast, under the influence of winter low-pressure
systems in the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific Ocean.
· Isolated wind phenomena in the Western States, such as the
Chinook and Santa Ana winds, occur very locally along mountainous terrains.
V. Hailstorms
A Hailstorm is an outgrowth of a severe thunderstorm in which balls
or irregularly shaped lumps of ice greater than 0.75” in diameter fall
with rain.
· Hailstorms occur more frequently during late spring and early
summer, when the jet stream migrates northward across the Great Plains.
· Hailstorms cause nearly $1 billion in property and crop damage
annually.
Danger Zones- Hailstorms occur primarily in the Midwestern States.
Only a localized area along the border of northern Colorado and southern
Wyoming experiences hailstorms on 8 or more days each year. Most
inland regions experience hailstorms at least 2 or more days each year.
VI. Snow Avalanches
A snow avalanche is the sliding snow or ice mass in an avalanche moves
at high velocities. It can sheer trees, completely cover entire communities
and highway routes, and level buildings. Natural and human-induced
snow avalanches most often result from structural weaknesses within the
snow pack. The potential for a snow avalanche increases with significant
temperature influences.
The primary threat is loss of life of backcountry skiers, climbers,
and snowmobilers due to suffocation when buried in an avalanche.
Around 10,000 avalanches are reported each year. Since 1790, an average
of 144 persons have been trapped in avalanches annually: on average 14
injured and 14 died. The estimated annual average damage to structures
is $500,000.
Danger Zones- The threat is most severe in the mountainous Western United
States, including Alaska.
VII. Severe Winter Storms
Severe Winter Storms consist of extreme cold and heavy concentrations
of snowfall or ice. A blizzard combines heavy snowfall, high winds,
extreme cold, and ice storms. The origins of the weather patterns
are from four sources:
1) In the Northwestern States, cyclonic weather systems form the North
Pacific Ocean or the Aleutian Island region sweep massive low-pressure
systems with heavy snow and blizzards.
2) In the Midwestern and Upper Plains States, Canadian and Arctic cold
fronts push ice and snow deep into the interior region and, in some instances,
all the way down to Florida.
3) In the Northeast, lake effect snowstorms develop from the passage
of cold air over the relatively warm surfaces of the Great Lakes, causing
heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions.
4) The Eastern and Northeastern States are affected by extra-tropical
cyclonic weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico that
produce snow, ice storms, and occasional blizzards.
Danger Zone – Severe Winter Storms affect every State in the continental
United States and Alaska. Areas where such weather is rare, such
as the extreme South, are disrupted more severely by winter storms than
are regions that experience severe weather more frequently. An average
of 93 deaths are attributed to winter storms annually.
IX. Extreme Heat
Extreme Heat is temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the
average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. Humid
or muggy conditions, which add to the discomfort of high temperatures,
occur when a “dome” of high atmospheric pressure traps hazy, damp air near
the ground. Excessively dry and hot conditions can provoke dust storms
and low visibility. Droughts occur when a long period passes without substantial
rainfall. A heat wave combined with a drought is a very dangerous situation.
Danger Zones- All areas in the United States are at risk of drought
at any time of the year. Drought gripped much of the West and Midwest from
1987 to 1991. The Missouri River Basin and California have experienced
extended periods of drought as well.
GEOLOGIC HAZARDS
Geologic Hazards are non-seismic ground failures involving landslides,
land subsidence, and expansive soils.
I. Landslides
Landslides occur when masses of rock, earth, or debris move down a slope.
Landslides may be very small or very large, and can move at slow to very
high speeds. Many landslides have been occurring over the same terrain
since prehistoric times. They are activated by storms and fires and by
human modification of the land. New landslides occur as a result of rainstorms,
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and various human activities.
Mudflows - Mudflows (or debris flows) are rivers of rock, earth, and
other debris saturated with water. They develop when water rapidly accumulates
in the ground, such as during heavy rainfall or rapid snowmelt, changing
the earth into a flowing river of mud or “slurry.” A slurry can flow rapidly
down slopes or through channels, and can strike with little or no warning
at avalanche speeds. A slurry can travel several miles from its source,
growing in size as it picks up trees, cars, and other materials along the
way.
Lateral Spreads- Lateral Spreads are large elements of distributed,
lateral displacement of materials They occur in rock, but they can also
occur in fine-grained, sensitive soils such as quick clays. Loose
granular soils commonly produce lateral spreads through liquefaction.
Liquefaction can occur spontaneously, presumably because of changes in
pore-water pressures, or in response to vibrations such as those produced
by strong earthquakes.
Falls and Topples - Falls occur when masses of rock or other material
detach from a steep slope or cliff and descend by free fall, rolling, or
bouncing. Topples consist of the forward rotation of rocks or other
materials about a pivot point on a hill slope.
II. Land Subsidence
Land Subsidence is the loss of surface elevation due to the removal
of subsurface support, ranges from broad, regional lowering of the land
surface to localized collapse. The primary cause of most subsidence
is human activities: underground mining of coal, groundwater or petroleum
withdrawal, and drainage of organic soils.
The average annual damage from all types of subsidence is conservatively
estimated to be at least $125 million.
· Collapse into Voids- Collapse of surficial materials into underground
voids is the most dramatic form of subsidence usually from coalmines.
· Sediment Compaction - Sediment compaction typically causes
broad regional subsidence. Rates of subsidence usually are low, ranging
from a few millimeters to centimeters per year.
III. Expansive Soils
Soils and soft rock that tend to swell or shrink due to changes in moisture
content are commonly known as expansive soils. Changes in soil volume
present a hazard primarily to structures built on top of expansive soils.
The most extensive damage occurs to highways and streets. Two major
groups of rocks, which occur more commonly in the West than East:
· Aluminum Silicate Minerals – ash, glass, and rocks of volcanic
origin
· Sedimentary Rock – clay minerals, shale
HYDROLOGIC HAZARDS
Water related damage caused by flooding along rivers and coasts in the
U.S. accounts for over 75 percent of all Federal disaster declarations.
I. Floods
Floods can be slow, or fast rising but generally develop over a period
of days. It usually occurs from large-scale weather systems generating
prolonged rainfall or on-shore winds. Other causes of flooding include
locally intense thunderstorms, snowmelt, ice jams, and dam failures.
Floods are capable of undermining buildings and bridges, eroding shorelines
and riverbanks, tearing out trees, washing out access routes, and causing
loss of life and injuries.
Flash floods usually result from intense storms dropping large amounts
of rain within a brief period. Flash floods occur with little or no warning
and can reach full peak in only a few minutes.
Danger Zone - Floods are the most common and widespread of all natural
disasters—except fire. Most communities in all 50 states can experience
some kind of flooding after spring rains, heavy thunderstorms, or winter
snow thaws. The states with the greatest risk are Florida, California,
Texas, Louisiana, and New Jersey. (FEMA bases that on a composite
risk score that accounts for floodplain are and number and value of households)
Flooding Facts:
· Flooding has caused the deaths of more than 10,000 people
since 1900.
· Property damage from flooding now totals over $1 billion each
year in the United States.
· FEMA estimates that over 9 million households and $390 billion
in property are at risk from flooding.
II. Storm Surges
Storm Surges are storms that generate the large waves on the coast that
cause coastal flooding and erosion. They are most frequent from late
fall to early spring, but can develop year-round. They are usually
associated with extra tropical cyclones (nor’easters) in the North Atlantic
Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and severe winter low-pressure systems in
the North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska.
Danger Zone- The entire East Coast, along the Gulf of Mexico, the California
Coast, and the Gulf of Alaska
III. Coastal Erosion
Coastal erosion is measured as the rate of change in the position or
horizontal displacement of a shoreline over a period of time. It
is generally associated with storm surges, hurricanes, windstorms, and
flooding hazards, and may be exacerbated by human activities such as boat
wakes, shoreline hardening, and dredging.
Danger Zones- It affects every coastal State and territory in the U.S.
Coastal erosion has been a factor in more than 25 Federal disaster declarations
during the past 20 years.
IV. Droughts
Drought is defined as a water shortage caused by a deficiency of rainfall
and differs from other natural hazards in three ways:
a) A drought’s onset and end are difficult to determine since the effects
accumulate slowly and may linger even after the apparent termination of
an episode.
b) The absence of a precise and universally accepted definition adds
to the confusion about whether a drought exists, and if it does, the degree
of severity.
c) Drought impacts are less obvious and spread over a larger
geographic area.
SEISMIC HAZARDS
I. Earthquakes
An earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the Earth caused by the
breaking and shifting of rock beneath the Earth’s surface. This shaking
can cause buildings and bridges to collapse; disrupt gas, electric, and
phone service; and sometimes trigger landslides, avalanches, flash floods,
fires, and huge, destructive ocean waves (tsunamis). Buildings with foundations
resting on unconsolidated landfill, old waterways, or other unstable soil
are most at risk. Earthquakes can occur at any time of the year.
Danger Zones - Earthquakes occur most frequently west of the Rocky Mountains,
although historically the most violent earthquakes have occurred in the
central United States. All 50 states and all U.S. territories are vulnerable
to earthquakes. Forty-one states or territories are at moderate to high
risk.
Many people think of California as “Earthquake Country,” but the state
with the most major earthquakes is Alaska.
II. Tsunami (pronounced “soo-nahm’ee”)
A tsunami is a series of waves generated by an undersea disturbance
such as an earthquake. From the area of the disturbance, the waves will
travel outward in all directions, much like the ripples caused by throwing
a rock into a pond. As the waves approach the shallow coastal waters,
they appear normal and the speed decreases. Then as the tsunami nears the
coastline, it may grow to great height and smash into the shore, causing
much destruction.
a) Areas at greatest risk are less than 50 feet above sea level
and within one mile of the shoreline.
b) Tsunamis arrive as a series of successive “crests” (high water
levels) and “troughs” (low water levels). These successive crests and troughs
can occur anywhere from 5 to 90 minutes apart. They usually occur 10 to
45 minutes apart. The wave speed in the open ocean will average 450
miles per hour.
c) Tsunamis reaching heights of more than 100 feet have been
recorded.
d) Most deaths during a tsunami are a result of drowning. Associated
risks include flooding, polluted water supplies, and damaged gas lines.
OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS
I. Volcanic
A volcano is a mountain that opens downward to a reservoir of molten
rock below the surface of the earth. Unlike most mountains, which are pushed
up from below, volcanoes are built up by an accumulation of their own eruptive
products lava, ash flows, and airborne ash and dust. When pressure from
gases and the molten rock becomes strong enough to cause an explosion,
eruptions occur. Gases and rock shoot up through the opening and spill
over, or fill the air with lava fragments. Volcanic products are used as
building or road-building materials, as abrasive and cleaning agents, and
as raw materials for many chemical and industrial uses. Lava ash makes
soil rich in mineral nutrients.
1. Volcanic ash can affect people hundreds of miles away from the cone
of a volcano. Several of the deaths from the Mount St. Helens volcano in
1980 were attributed to inhalation of ash. Volcanic ash can contaminate
water supplies, cause electrical storms, and collapse roofs.
2. An erupting volcano can also trigger tsunamis, flash floods, earthquakes,
rock falls, and mudflows.
3. Sideways directed volcanic explosions, known as “lateral blasts,”
can shoot large pieces of rock at very high speeds for several miles. These
explosions can kill by impact, burial, or heat. They have been known to
knock down entire forests. The majority of deaths attributed to the Mount
St. Helens volcano were a result of lateral blast and tree blow-down.
Danger Zones- Volcanic eruptions are most likely in the Pacific Rim
states of Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. The chance
of eruptions that could damage populated areas is the greatest for the
active volcanoes of Hawaii and Alaska. Active volcanoes of the Cascade
Mountain Range in California, Oregon, and Washington have created problems
recently. The danger area around a volcano covers approximately a 20-mile
radius. Some danger may exist 100 miles or more from a volcano, leaving
Montana and Wyoming at risk.
II. Wildfires
There are three different classes of wildland fires. A surface fire
is the most common type and burns along the floor of a forest, moving slowly
and killing or damaging trees. A ground fire is usually started by lightning
and burns on or below the forest floor. Crown fires spread rapidly by wind
and move quickly by jumping along the tops of trees. Wildland fires are
usually signaled by dense smoke that fills the area for miles around.
a) As residential areas expand into relatively untouched wildlands,
people living in these communities are increasingly threatened by forest
fires. Protecting structures in the wildland from fire poses special problems,
and can stretch firefighting resources to the limit.
b) If heavy rains follow a fire, other natural disasters can
occur, including landslides, mudflows, and floods. Once ground cover has
been burned away, little is left to hold soil in place on steep slopes
and hillsides.
c) A major wildland fire can leave a large amount of scorched
and barren land. These areas may not return to pre-fire conditions for
decades. If the wildland fire destroyed the ground cover, then erosion
becomes one of several potential problems.
Danger Zones- all wooded, brush, and grassy areas—especially
those in Kansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida, the Carolinas,
Tennessee, California, Massachusetts, and the national forests of the western
United States.
Interface or intermix fires –
Firestorms –
Prescribed fires and prescribed natural fires –
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
I. Dam Failures
Dam failures are potentially the worst flood events. A dam failure is
usually the result of neglect, poor design, or structural damage caused
by a major event such as an earthquake. When a dam fails, a gigantic quantity
of water is suddenly let loose downstream, destroying anything in its path.
II. Fires
Fires can be triggered or exacerbated by lightning, high winds, earthquakes,
volcanoes, and floods. Lightning is the most significant natural
contributor to fires affecting the built environment. Buildings with
rooftop storage tanks for flammable liquids are particularly susceptible.
Danger Zones- States with the largest populations tend to have the greatest
number of fire-related fatalities, which are related to population density.
III. Hazardous Materials Events
Hazardous materials are chemical substances, which if released or misused
can pose a threat to the environment or health. These chemicals are used
in industry, agriculture, medicine, research, and consumer goods. Hazardous
materials come in the form of explosives, flammable and combustible substances,
poisons, and radioactive materials. These substances are most often released
as a result of transportation accidents or because of chemical accidents
in plants.
a) Hazardous materials in various forms can cause death, serious
injury, long-lasting health effects, and damage to buildings, homes, and
other property. Many products containing hazardous chemicals are used and
stored in homes routinely. These products are also shipped daily on the
nation’s highways, railroads, waterways, and pipelines.
b) Varying quantities of hazardous materials are manufactured,
used, or stored at an estimated 4.5 million facilities in the United States—from
major industrial plants to local dry cleaning establishments or gardening
supply stores.
c) The Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act requires
that detailed information about hazardous substances in or near communities
be available at the public’s request. The law provides stiff penalties
for companies that fail to comply and allows citizens to file lawsuits
against companies and government agencies to force them to obey the law.
IV. Nuclear Accidents
The potential danger from an accident at a nuclear power plant is exposure
to radiation. This exposure could come from the release of radioactive
material from the plant into the environment, usually characterized by
a plume (cloud-like) formation. The area the radioactive release may affect
is determined by the amount released from the plant, wind direction and
speed and weather conditions (i.e., rain, snow, etc.) which would quickly
drive the radioactive material to the ground, hence causing increased deposition
of radionuclides. Radioactive materials are composed of atoms that
are unstable. An unstable atom gives off its excess energy until it becomes
stable. The energy emitted is radiation. The process by which an atom changes
from an unstable state to a more stable state by emitting radiation is
called radioactive decay or radioactivity.
a) Since 1980, each utility that owns a commercial nuclear power
plant in the United States has been required to have both an onsite and
offsite emergency response plan as a condition of obtaining and maintaining
a license to operate that plant. Onsite emergency response plans are approved
by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Offsite plans (which are closely
coordinated with the utility’s onsite emergency response plan) are evaluated
by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and provided to the NRC,
who must consider the FEMA findings when issuing or maintaining a license.
b) Radioactive materials—if handled improperly—or radiation accidentally
released into the environment, can be dangerous because of the harmful
effects of certain types of radiation on the body. The longer a person
is exposed to radiation and the closer the person is to the radiation,
the greater the risk.
c) Although radiation cannot be detected by the senses (sight,
smell, etc.), it is easily detected by scientists with sophisticated instruments
that can detect even the smallest levels of radiation.
V. National Security Hazards
Terrorism is the use of force or violence against persons or property
in violation of the criminal laws of the United States for purposes of
intimidation, coercion or ransom. Terrorists often use threats to create
fear among the public, to try to convince citizens that their government
is powerless to prevent terrorism, and to get immediate publicity for their
causes.
a) Before the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and the
Pentagon, most terrorist incidents in the United States have been bombing
attacks, involving detonated and undetonated explosive devices, tear gas
and pipe and firebombs.
b) The effects of terrorism can vary significantly from loss
of life and injuries to property damage and disruptions in services such
as electricity, water supply, public transportation and communications.
c) One way governments attempt to reduce our vulnerability to
terrorist incidents is by increasing security at airports and other public
facilities. The U.S. government also works with other countries to limit
the sources of support for terrorism.
d) The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) categorizes terrorism
in the United States as one of two types—domestic terrorism or international
terrorism.
1) Domestic terrorism involves groups or individuals whose terrorist
activities are directed at elements of our government or population without
foreign direction.
2) International terrorism involves groups or individuals whose
terrorist activities are foreign-based and/or directed by countries or
groups outside the United States or whose activities transcend national
boundaries.
VI. Biological and Chemical Weapons
Biological agents are infectious microbes or toxins used to produce
illness or death in people, animals or plants. Biological agents can be
dispersed as aerosols or airborne particles. Terrorists may use biological
agents to contaminate food or water because they are extremely difficult
to detect. Chemical agents kill or incapacitate people, destroy livestock
or ravage crops. Some chemical agents are odorless and tasteless and are
difficult to detect. They can have an immediate effect (a few seconds to
a few minutes) or a delayed effect (several hours to several days).
Disaster FactsTop Ten Major Disasters Ranked by FEMA Relief Costs*1989-1999Source:
FEMA
EVENT/YEAR FEMA FUNDING*
Northridge Earthquake (CA, 1994) $6.952 billion
Hurricane Georges (AL, FL, LA, MS, PR, USVI, 1998) $2.394 billion
Hurricane Andrew (FL, LA, 1992) $1.847 billion
Hurricane Hugo (NC, SC, PR, VI, 1989) $1.314 billion
Midwest Floods (IL,IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD, WI, 1993) $1.144 billion
Hurricane Floyd (CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, SC, VT, VA,
1999) $880.4 million
Loma Prieta Earthquake (CA, 1989) $869.0 million
Red River Valley Floods (MN, ND, SD, 1997) $725.1 million
Hurricane Fran (MD, NC, PA, SC, VA, WVA, 1996) $630.2 million
Tropical Storm Alberto (AL, FL, GA, 1994) $542.8 million
*Amount obligated from the President’s Disaster Relief Fund for FEMA’s
assistance programs, hazard mitigation grants, federal mission assignments,
contractual services and administrative costs as of July 31, 2000. Figures
do not include funding provided by other participating federal agencies,
such as the disaster loan programs of the Small Business Administration
and the Agriculture Department’s Farm Service Agency.
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