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Crisis and Emergency Management

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December 2007                                                                                              Volume 13 - Number 3

Perspectives...

Hurricane “Evacuitis” Can Be Avoided
By Josh Raeben

Thought somewhat infrequent to the south shore of Long Island, evacuation due to the threat of an incoming Hurricane is more common than one might imagine.  Fire Island is a barrier beach that extends thirty-two miles in length and at its widest point is approximately one-half mile wide.  The island is very unique in that vehicle traffic is restricted to official and essential vehicles during the summer season, and restricted by limited permits in the off season.  While the off-season has relatively few residents, the summer swarms and the more than 15 communities swarm with the weekend warriors, vacationers, and residents alike.  The primary method of transportation to the island is via passenger-only ferries leaving from mainland Long Island.  With such limited accessibility, evacuation decisions are often made early, and promptly.
    Their have been many evacuations from the island and it seemed that the general trend of the County government was to first issue a voluntary evacuation notice in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.  Usually, if the storm continued on its track, a day later, the order was changed to mandatory evacuations.  Many of the homes on the island are second homes for vacationing and with this in mind, the vast majority of people have another place of refuge to go to and very few potentially need shelter.  When it came to evacuations, the county police and local Fire Departments would announce the evacuations but most people heeded the orders and would leave the beach.  The ferry company would announce its last boat, and when that boat left, there wasn’t another one coming.
    In the following years, there were several other voluntary evacuations, some without any mandatory evacuations.  During one of these storms, which many folks stayed through, there was significant winds and significant storm surge causing damage to many ocean front homes, also causing a number of breaches of the dunes.  It would seem that a storm of this intensity should have required evacuation.
    While hurricane forecasting has greatly improved over time, there is still great variance in a storm track.  In addition, storms typically pick up great speed along their northward movement along the east coast.  This, along with Fire Island’s relative inaccessibility, creates the need for very early warning.  This early preparation is excellent, but when storm track changes and the need to evacuate are gone, the public begins doubting the authorities for the calling of an evacuation.  When this type of event recurs within a relatively short amount of time, it leads to what we’ll call “evacuitis”.
    Taking this type of scenario, which happens in other places through the country, this is something that is hard to avoid, but something that can probably be better managed.  Not necessarily in terms of how the evacuation is actually managed, but by how the evacuation is perceived and what information is being put out by the local officials.  People need to understand that “this”, Emergency Management, is no science; likewise, the weather is not always predictable.
    Since this time, there have has been improvements to Hurricane Awareness programs to remind people of the dangers of Hurricanes and the need to evacuate and listen to officials.  This continued annual effort, along with excellent public information throughout (pre, during, and post event), could lead to less “evacuitis” and will potentially save lives.